Saturday, April 1, 2023

Telecom Companies Globally Are Threatened With Extinction, So This Is The Solution

In this article, I will discuss the global telecommunications sector and specifically telecom companies, their finances, what they need to do to continue, and what can be done to ensure their sustainability. I will divide the article into a series of stages: the past, present, and future.


The past: In the 1990s, telecommunications companies experienced their peak growth, with most of their revenue coming from the individual sector, which included phone calls, text messages, internet packages (or data), and the distribution of mobile devices and content. The business sector, which provided services to companies and government entities, was relatively less lucrative. However, the rules of the game changed.


The present: By the beginning of the millennium, telecommunications companies had reached their peak, expanding their reach to cover 50% to 70% of the population. However, at the same time, new players entered the market, such as messaging apps and internet companies like WhatsApp, Facebook, Google, and Apple. These companies took market share away from telecommunications companies globally as customers turned to these free and more widely used applications. For example, Facebook is like a telecommunications company with nearly 2 billion users who can use its messaging and voice and video calling services for free to communicate with each other worldwide. As a result, the use of traditional telecommunications calls and messaging declined significantly, to the point where the revenue of telecommunications companies was limited to selling internet packages. With the increasing use of the internet and video platforms such as YouTube that consume high bandwidth, another significant challenge emerged, where network usage costs increased, eating into telecommunications companies' revenues. On the other hand, telecommunications companies had no choice but to lower their prices to gain more customers, further straining their finances. Consequently, there has been a noticeable decrease in the revenues of most telecommunications companies worldwide in the last three years.


At the turn of the millennium, some telecommunications companies sensed danger and worked on defensive plans such as restructuring their operations, like outsourcing customer service departments to external companies to reduce costs and financial burdens. Also, the sales department.


The future:

One day, I visited a start-up in San Francisco specializing in providing AI to reduce the number of customer service employees in companies by 90%. This means that out of 100 employees, you can rely on 10 employees and AI, and lay off 90 employees!! This is just the beginning. Also, among the defensive solutions is the merger with other telecommunications companies to reduce operating costs.


One of the offensive plans is to use data analysis and establish departments in the field of Data Science to study customer segmentation and convert it into sellable information for the retail, banking, and transportation sectors, where they are interested in this information to provide their services better and closer to individuals.


Another proposal is to work on owning global technologies and innovations.


Also, one of the offensive plans is to establish companies in the field of content, media, and entertainment, or to partner with them or acquire them, such as what happened between AT&T and Time Warner, where the deal was valued at $100 billion. Where Time Warner works in the field of media and content, as it owns satellite stations and channels, in addition to working on broadcasting content such as news and visual production. As a result, AT&T strengthened its revenues in the field of advertising and also provided content services to its customers through subscription packages.


Similarly, Verizon Communications worked on acquiring Yahoo to boost its revenues.


Also, one of the offensive plans is to turn telecommunications companies into investment companies in the telecommunications and technology sector, such as SoftBank, and thus own technologies that can spread globally. Where SoftBank invests in companies that manufacture electronic chips, as well as Uber and Alibaba. Their investment in the Chinese company Alibaba is one of the most successful investments, as they achieved a return of $60 billion from an investment of $20 million!! A deal of its kind.


The truth is that the story is not over yet. I claim that in the coming years, telecommunications companies will be completely overtaken as they will have competitors in offering internet packages, which are currently their main source of income. Google has launched internet packages with a mobile number in the past two years, so you can subscribe to them and use them anywhere in the world, not to mention their investments in developing technologies and satellites to provide affordable internet to as many people as possible, with the goal of reaching 7 billion people. Facebook also has initiatives in this field, and there are other companies working on developing technologies for broadcasting the internet globally. This will generally expose telecommunications companies to bankruptcy if they do not work on defensive and offensive plans quickly, develop their strategic plans, and attract talent to accelerate the development process.

Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Self Driving Helps Uber To Make More Money (update)

Self-driving cars have been a topic of discussion for years, and now we are finally seeing them become a reality. With the advancements in technology, companies like Tesla, Google, and Uber have been investing heavily in self-driving technology. The Toyota Prius with self-driving system is one such vehicle that has caught the attention of many.


The cost of the Toyota Prius with self-driving technology is around $320,000, which is more expensive than a Ferrari California. However, this cost is definitely worth it when considering the benefits it offers. The self-driving car can work for longer hours than a human driver, which means it can generate more revenue. In addition, the cost of the self-driving technology will come down in the future, making it more affordable.


Let's take a closer look at the numbers to see how much money can be saved by using self-driving cars. If Uber were to use a self-driving car for 15 years, the monthly cost would be around $1,777. This includes the cost of the car, gas, maintenance, and insurance expenses. However, the cost will come down in the future as technology advances.


On the other hand, an Uber driver in San Francisco can make around $20 per hour. If a self-driving car were to work for 12 hours a day, it could generate around $7,200 in revenue per month. This is a significant amount of money that can be saved by using self-driving cars.


Calculating the gross profit margin from self-driving technology, we get 61.1%, which is much higher than Uber's current gross profit margin of 25%. However, the drivers currently take 75% of the revenue, so the actual profit margin is lower. In the future, with the cost of self-driving technology coming down, Uber can make a gross profit margin of around 60%.


Another advantage of self-driving cars is that they can offer lower prices and faster service. From research, it can be seen that the cost of an Uber ride from Downtown Berkeley to Downtown San Francisco has decreased over the years, the cost of a ride from Downtown Berkeley to Downtown San Francisco with UberX is $30. However, using UberPOOL, the cost has reduced over time from $15 at the beginning of 2016 to $7-$10 in mid-2016, and as low as $4-$8 with the UberPOOL Ride Pass in 2017. With self-driving cars and a 20% discount, the cost could be as low as $3.2-$6.4. This makes it a more affordable and efficient option compared to public transportation, which costs $4 and takes 45 minutes.


From all these numbers, it can be estimated that Uber's valuation could be around $130B-$195B. This is based on Uber's revenue in 2016, and using a P/E ratio of 20x to 30x. With the increasing adoption of self-driving cars, the valuation is only going to increase.


In conclusion, self-driving cars are the future of transportation, and the Toyota Prius with self-driving technology is a step in the right direction. The cost of self-driving technology will come down in the future, making it more affordable for everyone. With the use of self-driving cars, Uber can generate more revenue and offer cheaper and faster service, which is a win-win situation for everyone involved.

Thursday, January 3, 2019

Self Driving Helps Uber To Make More Money


Image result for uber logo

   Cost of car ( Toyota Prius ) with self driving system around $320,000 ( fully autonomous ). And that's more expensive than Ferrari California. However, that's definitely worth it.

   First of all, let's say Uber will use self driving car for 15 years. As well, the cost will be $320,000 / 15 / 12 = $1,777 monthly. Also if we add gas, maintenance and insurance expenses. The total cost definitely will reach $2,800 monthly. However, that's going to be cheaper in the future.

   In addition, Uber driver can make $20 per hour in San Francisco. Some of them work 8 hours a day as full time 5 days a week. However, self driving car could work more than 8 hours. Let's say 12 hour a day at least ( maybe more because that is robot ! ). Which means it could make around $7,200 monthly ( $20 x 12 hrs x 30 day ).

   Moreover, if we want to calculate gross profit margin from self driving technology. That will be ( $7,200 - $2,800 ) / $7,200 = 61.1 % ( but now Uber gross profit margin is 25% and Uber drivers take 75% !! ).

   Furthermore, in the future Uber can make gross profit margin around 60% !. Let's say Uber will spend 20% into ( marketing , employee's salaries , R&D ... etc ), 20% net profit margin and 20% discount for customers.

   Last not least I did research about cost of ride with Uber from Downtown Berkeley to Downtown San Francesco ( From my experience using Uber in the Bay Area from 2014 until 2017 ).

UberX : $30
UberPOOL ( at the beginning 2016 ) : $15
UberPOOL ( Mid-2016 ) : $7 ~ $10
UberPOOL Ride Pass ( 2017 ) : $4 ~ $8
UberPOOL ( Maybe in the future after using self driving with 20% discount ) : $3.2 ~ $6.4
If you use BART ( public transportation ) : $4 and it takes 45 minutes

Therefore, Uber will be lower price and faster!.

Also my point of view about Uber valuation for IPO could be around $130B ~ $195B . From the numbers: Uber revenue in 2016 was $6.5B. Also If we use P/E ratio 20x and 30x. As a result Uber valuation could be around $130B ~ $195B.

Finally, cost of self driving technology especially fully autonomous will be more affordable in the future also cheaper. That could save customers a lot of money. Also more profitable for Uber and Lyft.


Note: This blog was written in 2017 but it was published in 2019.

Monday, June 25, 2018

شركات الاتصالات عالميا مهددة بالانقراض , اذا هذا هو الحل

سأتطرق في هذه المقالة لقطاع الاتصالات عالميا وبشكل خاص شركات الاتصالات ومالها وما عليها وما يمكن عمله لتكمل استمرارها . سأعمل على تقسيم المقال الى مجموعة مراحل عبارة عن الماضي , والحاضر , والمستقبل .

الماضي :
كانت في التسعينات ذروة نمو شركات الاتصالات حيث كانت مصادر دخل الشركات من خلال قطاع الأفراد وهو النصيب الأكبر من المكالمات , والرسائل النصية , وايضا باقات الانترنت (او ما يطلق عليها ديتا) وايضا موزعين للاجهزة الجوال والمحتوى . وقطاع الأعمال وهو الأقل نسبيا حيث يتم تقديم الخدمات للشركات والجهات الحكومية . ولكن قواعد اللعبة تغيرت .

الحاضر :
اقصد فيها بداية الألفية وصلت شركات الاتصالات ذروتها وذلك من خلال انتشارها ووصولها الى 50% او 70% من السكان . لكن في نفس الوقت دخل لاعبين جدد في السوق كتطبيقات التواصل وشركات الإنترنت مثل واتس اب , فيسبوك , قوقل وايضا شركة ابل وسحبت البساط من شركات الاتصالات عالميا حيث توجه العملاء إلى استخدام هذه التطبيقات بسبب انها مجانية وايضا اكثر استخداما وانتشارا . حيث فيس بوك يعتبر بمثابة شركة اتصالات لديها مايقارب 2 مليار مستخدم بإمكانهم استخدام الرسائل والاتصال الصوتي والمرئي مجانا للتواصل فيما بينهم حول العالم . لذلك قل استخدام الاتصال والرسائل التقليدية من خلال شركات الاتصالات بشكل ملحوظ لدرجة تم تحجيم دخل شركات الاتصالات إلى بيع باقات الانترنت ومع تزايد استخدام العملاء للإنترنت ومنصات الفيديو مثل اليوتيوب وخلافة التي تستهلك نطاق عالي (bandwidth) , وبتالي بدأ تحدي آخر كبير حيث تكاليف استخدام الشبكة زاد وبدأ يأخذ نصيب من إيرادات شركات الاتصالات . وبالمقابل ليس لدى شركات الاتصالات الا ان تعمل على تخفيض الأسعار لكسب عملاء أكثر وهذا ايضا ارهق الشركات ماليا . لذلك وبشكل ملحوظ يوجد انخفاض في إيرادات معظم شركات الاتصالات عالميا في آخر 3 سنوات . 

منتصف الألفية , بعض شركات الاتصالات استشعرت الخطر وعملت على خطط دفاعية كخطة إنقاذ وهي اعادة هيكلة اعمالها مثل تحويل قسم خدمة العملاء إلى شركات خارجية او ما يطلق عليه (outsourcing) لتخفيض التكاليف والأعباء المالية . وايضا قسم المبيعات .

المستقبل :
في يوم من الايام عملت على زيارة ستارت اب في سان فرانسيسكو متخصصين في تقديم الذكاء الصناعي AI لتقليل عدد موظفي خدمة العملاء في الشركات بنسبة 90% بمعنى من أصل 100 موظف يمكنك الاعتماد على 10 موظفين والذكاء الصناعي AI و تسريح 90 موظف !! . وما هي الا البداية . وايضا من ضمن الحلول كخطط دفاعية هي الاندماج مع شركات اتصالات الأخرى وذلك لتقليل تكاليف التشغيل .

ومن الخطط الهجومية , هو الاستفادة من تحليل بيانات وتأسيس أقسام في مجال Data Science لكي يتم دراسة تمركز العملاء وتحويلها إلى معلومات قابلة للبيع لقطاع التجزئة والبنوك وايضا لشركات النقل حيث تهمها هذه المعلومات لكي يقدموا خدماتهم للأفراد بشكل افضل واقرب .

وايضا من المقترحات هو العمل على تملك تقنيات وابتكارات ذات طلب عالمي

وايضا من الخطط الهجومية , هي تأسيس شركات في مجال المحتوى والميديا والترفيه أو عمل شراكات معها أو الاستحواذ عليها مثل ماتم بين شركة AT&T و Time Warner حيث قدرت قيمة الصفة بـ 100 مليار دولار . حيث Time Warner تعمل في مجال الميديا والمحتوى حيث انها تملك محطات وقنوات فضائية غير انها تعمل على بث المحتوى مثل الأخبار والإنتاج المرئي . وبتالي AT&T عززت إيراداتها في مجال الاعلانات وايضا تقديم خدمات المحتوى لعملائها عبر باقات اشتراك .

وبالمثل شركة Verizon Communications عملت على الاستحواذ على Yahoo وذلك لتعزيز إيراداتها

ايضا من الخطط الهجومية هي تحول شركات الاتصالات إلى شركات استثمار في مجال الاتصالات والتقنية مثل SoftBank وبتالي يكون تملكت تقنيات قابلة للانتشار عالميا . حيث SoftBank مستثمرة في شركات مصنعة لشرائح الالكترونية وايضا اوبر و شركة علي بابا . حيث يعتبر استثمارهم في شركة علي بابا الصينية من انجح الاستثمارات حيث حققو 60 مليار دولار عائد من اصل استثمار 20 مليون دولار !! . صفقة من ذهب .

حقيقة لم تنتهي القصة , ادعي ان في السنوات القادمة سوف يسحب البساط من شركات الاتصالات كليا حيث سيكون لديها منافسين في تقديم باقات الانترنت وهي آخر مصادر دخل شركات الاتصالات حاليا . حيث ان قوقل أطلقت في السنتين الماضية باقات انترنت مع رقم جوال وبالتالي يمكنك الاشتراك فيها واستخدامها في أي مكان في العالم  , ناهيكم عن استثماراتها في تطوير تقنيات وأقمار صناعية لتقديم الإنترنت بأسعار معقولة لأكبر قدر ممكن حيث من أهدافهم ان تصل الانترنت الى 7 مليار نسمة وأيضا فيسبوك لديها مبادرات في هذا المجال ويوجد شركات اخرى ايضا تعمل على تطوير تقنيات لبث الانترنت على مستوى الكرة الأرضية  . مما سيعرض شركات الاتصالات بشكل عام للإفلاس إذا لم تعمل على خطط دفاعية وهجومية بشكل سريع . وتطوير خططها الاستراتيجية واستقطاب كفاءات لتسريع من عملية التطور .


نسخة في موقع أرقام :
http://alphabeta.argaam.com/author/detail/19861

Tuesday, April 17, 2018